The Penguins signed Crosby to a 12-year deal this summer. But are contracts like these worth it? (Icon SMI)
By Meesh Shanmugam, Staff Writer | Follow him on Twitter
As the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the NHL and NHLPA reaches its expiration date in 50 days, general managers have continued with business as usual…almost.
Over the past month, an unusually high number of players have received very lengthy deals or extensions, all at least 10 years. When the NHL owners made their first offer on a new CBA to the NHLPA, one item stood out in regards to these deals: The owners want to negotiate beginning with a five year limit on contracts. That could mean an end to long contracts that have been used to “circumvent” the salary cap.
The six players that have signed these contracts in the past month all deserve their deals on some level. Jonathan Quick signed a 10 year deal ($5.8 mil cap hit) within a month of leading the Los Angeles Kings to a Stanley Cup victory and winning the Conn Smythe trophy as playoff MVP. Sidney Crosby signed a 12 year deal ($8.7 mil cap hit) as the captain of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and perhaps the face of the NHL, despite missing much of the past two seasons with concussion symptoms. Ryan Suter and Zach Parise each signed 13 year deals ($7.538 mil cap hit) with the Minnesota Wild after being considered the top defenseman and forward respectively on the free agent market this summer. Jordan Staal received a 10 year deal ($6 mil cap hit) coming off of one of his best seasons and a trade from Pittsburgh to join his brother Eric in Carolina. Finally, Norris trophy finalist Shea Weber just signed a 14 year deal ($7.857 mil cap hit) with the Nashville Predators, which was largely prompted by an offer sheet from Philadelphia.
Since these contracts may be the last batch of long-term deals we see in the NHL, it’s time to ask whether deals of this length are ever worthwhile. There are currently 15 players that are employed under contracts lasting 9 years or longer; let’s take a look at how each player is faring.
Note: I am giving a temporary “pass” for the contracts of Jeff Carter, Brad Richards, Christian Ehrhoff, and Ilya Bryzgalov since they are only one year into their deals. It is too difficult to judge their performances on new teams with only one season of statistics and information. All of them would be trending Sideways or Down based on their first year performances though, since each of them was worse statistically than before signing a long-term deal.
Ilya Kovalchuk, New Jersey
15 yrs, $100 million ($6.67 mil cap hit)
Years Played Under Deal: 2
Stats: 158gp, 68g, 75a, 143pts, -35 (Playoffs: 23gp, 8g, 11a, 19pts, -7)
So Far: Kovalchuk’s contract was widely ripped apart by fans and the media, and looked simply awful in his first year with New Jersey. However, it looked much more reasonable after a successful 2nd season as the Devils went to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Trending: Sideways. He was trending up until Parise left for Minnesota just weeks ago. Now Kovalchuk will face a big test as the main threat for the Devils. New Jersey will need him to keep up at last season’s level to justify this contract.
Alexander Ovechkin, Washington
13 yrs, $124 million ($9.538 mil cap hit)
Years Played Under Deal: 4
Stats: 308gp, 176g, 193a, 369pts, +69 (Playoffs: 44gp, 26g, 24a, 50pts, +12)
So Far: Ovechkin has been a dynamic player on the ice and produced goals and points as expected until this past season, when he saw a significant drop in his stats. Though his playoff stats are strong, the team’s inability to get beyond the 2nd round also weighs on him.
Trending: Down. With Adam Oates as the new guy behind the bench, Ovechkin could turn it around quickly, but his production drop is unacceptable for a guy of his caliber and price tag. His point total has dropped in four straight seasons. The upcoming season will be a crucial one for this contract.
Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit
12 yrs, $73 million ($6.083 mil cap hit)
Years Played Under Deal: 3
Stats: 236gp, 69g, 150a, 219pts, +25 (Playoffs: 24gp, 12g, 14a, 26pts, +14)
So Far: After four straight years of reaching at least 30 goals, Zetterberg signed this 12 year deal. Since then, he has yet to reach even 25 goals despite being healthier than prior to the contract. He has also joined the Wings in three early playoff exits, including back to back 1st round exits after going to the Stanley Cup Finals (and winning one) prior to this contract.
Trending: Down. Zetterberg’s production has dropped overall, especially on the powerplay, but he is still almost a point per game player. At the age of 31 though, it’s difficult to predict his production increasing in the future.
Mike Richards, Los Angeles
12 yrs, $69 million ($5.75 mil cap hit)
Years Played Under Deal: 4
Stats: 316gp, 102g, 150a, 252pts, +34 (Playoffs: 60gp, 13g, 37a, 50pts, -5)
So Far: After signing a 12 year deal with Philadelphia as the team’s captain, Richards was traded to Los Angeles after 3 years and proceeded to win the Cup in his 1st year with the Kings. His stats tailed off immensely with the Kings, but it’s hard to argue the end result.
Trending: Sideways/Down. Richards struggled with the Kings this past season but played fully up to his potential in the playoffs. He will need to improve his regular season performance next season or this will turn into a bad contract quickly.
Marian Hossa, Chicago
12 yrs, $63.3 million ($5.275 mil cap hit)
Years Played Under Deal: 3
Stats: 203gp, 78g, 107a, 185pts, +51 (Playoffs: 32gp, 5g, 16a, 21pts, +10)
So Far: Hossa finally accomplished his goal of winning a Cup in the 1st year of this contract and has improved statistically and in terms of health through the past 2 regular seasons as well. It remains to be seen how he will react to a concussion from this year’s postseason though.
Trending: Up/Sideways. Hossa has fit in very well with Chicago and seems to still be capable of playing at his top level. His health has been an issue though and will be a big factor coming off of a concussion.
Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay
11 yrs, $85 million ($7.727 mil cap hit)
Years Played Under Deal: 3
Stats: 211gp, 71g, 102a, 173pts, -23 (Playoffs: 18gp, 6g, 13a, 19pts, +6)
So Far: Lecavalier has seen his numbers (and health) drop off regularly over the past 6 seasons, including the first 3 of this contract. Meanwhile, the Lightning have only made the playoffs once since he signed the deal, though he was quite dynamic in helping them reach the conference finals in that one appearance.
Trending: Down. Lecavalier’s contract looks like a very bad decision in hindsight as his point totals continue to drop. At this point, Tampa may just hope that he can mentor Stamkos to greatness, though that may not be necessary anymore.
Johan Franzen, Detroit
11 yrs, $43.5 million ($3.954 mil cap hit)
Years Played Under Deal: 3
Stats: 180gp, 67g, 65a, 132pts, +29 (Playoffs: 25gp, 9g, 13a, 22pts, +6)
So Far: Franzen has played some of his best hockey since signing this deal despite now being 32 years old. He has set a career high in assists in each of the past 2 seasons.
Trending: Up. Franzen has stayed consistent over the past 2 years after missing most of the ’09-’10 season with an injury. He has actually increased his productivity in terms of shooting percentage and game winning goals as well.
Niklas Backstrom, Washington
10 yrs, $67 million ($6.7 mil cap hit)
Years Played Under Deal: 2
Stats: 119gp, 32g, 77a, 109pts, +20 (Playoffs: 22gp, 2g, 8a, 10pts, +2)
So Far: Backstrom was plagued by injuries last season but has generally been a productive player for the Capitals when in the lineup. Their offense reaches new heights whenever he is healthy and available. His postseason production has been dismal though in comparison to his talent.
Trending: Sideways. His first season under this contract was a success, though his playoff performance was bad. It is difficult to judge last season based on the coaching change and his injury issues. I would hazard a guess that he will be trending up under the tutelage of Adam Oates.
Duncan Keith, Chicago
13 yrs, $72 million ($5.538 mil cap hit)
Years Played Under Deal: 2
Stats: 156gp, 11g, 74a, 85pts, +14 (Playoffs: 13gp, 4g, 3a, 7pts, -2)
So Far: Keith appears to have plateaued in his performance as his stats reflect his career averages very closely. The Blackhawks haven’t had the same playoff success since he signed his contract after they won the Cup, but that is due to the rest of the team in large part.
Trending: Sideways. Keith will likely continue producing at the same pace and has given the Blackhawks a very dependable top pair defenseman.
Rick DiPietro, New York Islanders
15 yrs, 67.5 million ($4.5 mil cap hit)
Years Played Under Deal: 6
Stats: 172gp, 72-71-23, .905 Save % (Playoffs: 4gp, 1-3, .898 Save %)
So Far: DiPietro’s contract has been the poster child for disastrous long-term deals as he has been unable to stay healthy over the past 4 seasons, playing a total of 47 games.
Trending: Down. The Islanders have looked for other goalies and appear to have given up on him as a franchise goalie while they try to build up the rest of the team.
Roberto Luongo, Vancouver
12 yrs, 63.3 million ($5.333 mil cap hit)
Years Played Under Deal: 2
Stats: 115gp, 69-29-15, .924 Save % (Playoffs: 27gp, 15-12, .912 Save %)
So Far: Just two years after signing this deal, the Canucks are currently in the market to trade Luongo and promote backup Cory Schneider despite Luongo getting them to the Cup Final just a year ago. His regular seasons have been excellent, but often followed up by shaky postseasons.
Trending: Down. The Canucks have clearly lost faith in Luongo and will be looking to move him and his massive deal soon.
Conclusion
Out of the 11 long-term contracts (excluding the players mentioned above), 8 belong to forwards, 1 to a defenseman, and 2 to goalies. Only two of the forwards (Hossa and Franzen) appear to be trending up, though a couple others (Ovechkin, Backstrom) could join them quickly with a strong year. Duncan Keith remains steady as the only defenseman. Meanwhile, both goalie contracts look like mistakes so far. As you consider this, also remember that these players are all in their mid 20’s – early 30’s and are likely at their peaks or beyond them.
With these results, it appears that Jonathan Quick’s contract is incredibly risky and has an above average chance of turning out poorly. Shea Weber and Ryan Suter will hope to maintain their current level of play, but it remains to be seen how long they will be able to do that, especially with Suter in a new system. Crosby’s contract will carry the weight of his concussions as he moves forward. Parise has a strong chance of succeeding, though probably not for a full 13 years…or even half of that. Finally, Jordan Staal probably has the best chance to do well for the full length of his contract, since he is the youngest of the group and likely hasn’t reached the peak of his career yet.
So are these long-term deals worth the risk? No, they are probably not. Most teams will be paying these players for unproductive years far longer than worthwhile, especially if there is no championship involved. Meanwhile, their contracts will make them much more difficult to trade as they continue to age and likely decline. Also, take note that only two players on that list won the Cup after signing their deal: Marian Hossa and Mike Richards, who was traded after he signed his contract. There may be quite a few GMs filled with regret in 5 or 6 years with most of these players.
(Thank you capgeek.com for the salary information and nhl.com for the statistics.)
