On the Preds and ‘Puck Luck’ Andrew Hirsh November 1, 2013 Nashville Predators, Statistical Analysis 14 Comments More so than most sports, hockey is a game that requires luck to succeed. This, understandably, makes analysis more difficult to construct than, say, baseball: where most situations are extremely quantifiable, straight-forward and easily digestible. But what if we could quantify luck in hockey? Thanks to PDO, we can. PDO, at a team-wide scale, adds shooting percentage and save percentage during even strength action. For example, if a team’s EV SV% is .930 and it’s EV S% is .010, its PDO would be 1001. Since every shot on net leads to a save or a goal, the NHL-wide PDO is always 1. And while disparity in talent will always result in varying PDOs across the league, history tells us that teams’ PDOs normalize back toward 1 over large sample sizes — e.g. an 82-game season. Right now, the highest PDO in the league belongs to the Bruins (1052) and the lowest belongs to the Rangers (926). That’s a difference of 126. To provide some perspective, here are the differences between the best and worst PDOs over the last several (full) seasons: 2011-12: 35 2010-11: 48 2009-10: 57 2008-09: 53 2007-08: 43 As you can see, the imbalance shrinks considerably as time wears on. Luck, good or bad, rarely lasts. Hawercuk over at Arctic Ice Hockey did a good job explaining the power of this statistic: Add [shooting percentage] and [save percentage], and you get a statistic that is almost 100% luck. How can this be? Surely there are players or lines who are higher-percentage finishers than others and can also play adequate defense? I’m not saying there aren’t but for the vast majority of NHL regulars, a high PDO in one season comes crashing down the next. And many players with high one-ice shooting percentages get them by cheating offensively, which leaves them susceptible to higher-percentage opportunities against them at the other end of the ice. It’s important to point out that a team’s PDO doesn’t reflect how good it is. Take the 2007-08 Thrashers: in many numerical categories they were one of the worst teams this millennium; however, their five-on-five PDO that year was 999 — almost exactly even. So how can we relate this to the Predators? Well, thus far in 2013-14 they’ve been a pretty unlucky team, and if you’ve watched them play you don’t need any fancy numbers to back up that sentiment. While Nashville’s goals for average is currently worse than last year, its offense is operating at a higher level than it did in 2012-13, as evident by its improved possession stats. “Yeah, we’ve definitely been unlucky,” Patric Hornqvist said a few weeks ago. “The only thing we can do is keep pushing the way we have, and keep working in the system we have.” Through Thursday’s action, the Preds sit 26th in the NHL in five-on-five PDO at 0.973. This is not surprising, but at the same time it’s bound to get better. Via ExtraSkater.com, here’s how the whole league looks at the moment: Team GP PDO 1 Boston Bruins 12 104.2 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 14 104.1 3 Anaheim Ducks 14 103.8 4 St. Louis Blues 10 103.6 5 Colorado Avalanche 11 103.6 6 San Jose Sharks 13 102.9 7 Montréal Canadiens 13 102.6 8 Phoenix Coyotes 14 101.3 9 Ottawa Senators 12 101.1 10 Minnesota Wild 13 100.9 11 Dallas Stars 12 100.4 12 Vancouver Canucks 15 100.3 13 Chicago Blackhawks 13 100.3 14 Pittsburgh Penguins 13 100.2 15 Columbus Blue Jackets 11 99.7 16 Carolina Hurricanes 12 99.5 17 Tampa Bay Lightning 12 99.3 18 Detroit Red Wings 13 99.2 19 New York Islanders 12 99.2 20 Calgary Flames 12 98.9 21 Winnipeg Jets 14 98.6 22 Washington Capitals 12 98.5 23 Buffalo Sabres 15 98.5 24 Philadelphia Flyers 11 98.5 25 Edmonton Oilers 14 98.1 26 Nashville Predators 13 97.3 27 Florida Panthers 12 97.2 28 Los Angeles Kings 14 97.2 29 New Jersey Devils 12 96.3 30 New York Rangers 12 94.2 Hockeyanalysis.com and behindthenet.ca began calculating PDO in 2007-08, and no team between then and 2011-12 finished a season with a PDO lower than Nashville’s current figure. (Last year’s data isn’t worth analyzing here given lack of data the 48-game schedule provides). If the Predators can continue to play at the rate they have, they’re luck — and thus winning percentage — should experience a nice boost. 14 Responses google api example May 28th, 2014 Hello there I am so glad I found your weblog, I really found you by accident, while I was looking on Aol for something else, Regardless I am here now and would just like to say kudos for a remarkable post and a all round interesting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to read it all at the moment but I have saved it and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a lot more, Please do keep up the great jo. похудеть June 16th, 2014 что касается темы, то мне кажется актуальность будет известна только через некоторое время. download Dead Rising 3 for pc, Dead Rising 3 download free, Dead Rising 3 download for pc, Dead Rising 3 free download pc, Dead Rising 3 free, Dead Rising 3 download free pc, download Dead Rising 3 free, Dead Rising 3 free download full version for pc, fr June 16th, 2014 This site was… how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I’ve found something which helped me. Appreciate it! download transformers rise of the dark spark June 16th, 2014 Hi, after reading this awesome paragraph i am also happy to share my familiarity here with friends. Minecraft PE free download June 17th, 2014 Hi, its fastidious article regarding media print, we all be aware of media is a wonderful source of information. trisomic June 19th, 2014 Excellent blog here! Also your web site rather a lot up fast! What host are you the use of? Can I get your associate link on your host? I want my website loaded up as quickly as yours lol baby dentist Salem Mass June 19th, 2014 Hi, yes this post is truly good and I have learned lot of things from it about blogging. thanks. cup morel June 19th, 2014 Hello I am so grateful I found your weblog, I really found you by accident, while I was researching on Askjeeve for something else, Anyways I am here now and would just like to say thank you for a fantastic post and a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to go through it all at the minute but I have bookmarked it and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read much more, Please do keep up the great b. http://cara-daftarsbobet.com/ June 19th, 2014 I ɑm regular reader, how are yoou everybody? This post posted at thiѕ site is really gοod. Top Eleven Hack iOS June 29th, 2014 As you keep acting from this perspective your business will inevitably grow in the weeks to come. Currently, she’s editing a techno-thriller that should be out to publishers next summer. Derived from ‘oikonomikos, wi meaning knowledgeable within house operations, the term economics can be synonymous with Top 11 Hack Major 11 soccer manager Bridal party crack leading 10 hack into generator. Birmingham's Best DUI Lawyers July 1st, 2014 Hello i am kavin, its my firstt time to commenting anywhere, when i rad this paragraph i thought i could also create comment due tto this good piece of writing. Window Well repair Las Vegas NV, July 2nd, 2014 One of the main misconceptions about glass is that it is rather dull with practically no privacy. With all the new advances in technology- that is simply just not the case anymore. Over the years, glass manufacturers have come up with various types of glass like double glazed windows and patterned glass. You can use glass doors for your bathroom, patio and other places at your house to give your home an ultramodern or elegant look and feel. So you do not have to worry about the glass being dull or plain. Purchasing glass that has etched designs of nature like flowers and trees or any other categories based on your personal taste is possible nowadays. So finding the right kind of glass to blend with other furnishings in a particular room is indeed possible. There is no shortage of choices in terms of glass design. Another benefit of glass is in terms of insulation. Glass is not a good conductor of heat. During our hot summer season, with all the advances in energy efficiency with glass, glass will not absorb heat, making the room hotter. During a winter or autumn period, glass will not cause much heat loss. So you and your family might enjoy a more cooling effect during summer and a warmer effect during winter or autumn. You also save money in terms of utility bills. Since there is less heat loss, you can turn down the heating system to a lower temperature, which results in less energy consumption. During summer, there would not be any necessity to lower the temperature. Another benefit of using glass doors and windows is that it just makes your home brighter and more cheerful feeling. With our famous sunny days, there might be no necessity to switch on lights to light up a particular place since there is sufficient natural light. polished concrete cost Tampa Florida July 2nd, 2014 I’ve been exploring for a bit for any high-quality articles or blog posts on this sort of area . Exploring in Yahoo I ultimately stumbled upon this website. Studying this info So i’m satisfied to show that I have a very good uncanny feeling I discovered exactly what I needed. I so much certainly will make sure to do not disregard this website and provides it a glance regularly. basement contractors mississauga July 5th, 2014 I all the time used to read article in news papers but now as I am a user of web therefore from now I am using net for content, thanks to web.